Recap: Bitcoin was on a Tear the last 13 days or so. It looks like we have entered an accumulation/ranging zone. The intermediate cycle is positive but the macro is still downtrending. The macro scale always trumps anything shorter.
Technical Analysis: We are currently retesting the resistance of the downward sloping trendline from price highs at the end of February and April. Nice comparison to the fractal at the end of April. I suspect we range here over the next 3-7 days, ultimately testing $8800. I suspect a rejection and trend reversal (of the intermediate cycle thus, continuing the overall macro downtrend). I plan on entering a short position if and only if…We are rejected at 8800-9000. We then decisively fall through 8300 – 8400 and retest it it as resistance. The goal is to enter a longer term Short position, swing trade. My goal exit will be roughly 6100. I have an account for shorter trading time frames and one for high time frame swing trades.
Always remember, a forecast is just a forecast, an educated guess. Preparing for a possible scenario. What ultimately will decide my action is price action at that time. If bullish momentum carries us decisively through 8800 (ie. a day close above) then, my prediction is out the window and I adapt. The above is not set in stone and a good trader should not be either.